Kelly Criterion Calculator
Calculate your optimal stake size using the Kelly Criterion. Enter your odds, estimated edge, and bankroll to get a mathematically optimal bet size.
Inputs
Quarter Kelly: bet 2.09% of your bankroll
Results
How It Works
Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematically optimal formula for sizing bets to maximise the long-run growth of your bankroll. Developed by John Kelly Jr. at Bell Labs in 1956, it determines the fraction of your bankroll to stake given your edge and odds:
Where p is your true win probability and o is the decimal odds. Using fractional Kelly (quarter or half) reduces variance while preserving most of the growth advantage — recommended for real-world betting.
Shin Method & Devigging
Before applying Kelly, you need accurate fair probabilities — free from the bookmaker's overround (margin). The Shin method is the gold standard for extracting these. Unlike simple normalisation, Shin's model accounts for insider information embedded in the market, producing more accurate true probabilities especially in markets with asymmetric information.
Athenea Apex applies the Shin algorithm across thousands of markets daily to identify picks where the bookmaker odds imply a true probability lower than our devigged estimate — that gap is your edge.
Let Athenea find value bets automatically
Stop calculating manually. Athenea scans thousands of markets in real-time using the Shin method, CLV tracking, and Kelly staking — and sends picks directly to your Telegram.
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