You do not need software to check if a bet has value. You need one reference point and basic arithmetic.
The Method
- Find Pinnacle odds for the same match and outcome. Pinnacle is the sharpest bookmaker — their odds are closest to true probability.
- Compare: Is your bookmaker offering higher odds than Pinnacle?
- Calculate edge: (Your Odds / Pinnacle Odds) - 1
Example:
Pinnacle has Arsenal to win at 1.85
Bet365 has Arsenal to win at 2.00
Edge = (2.00 / 1.85) - 1 = +8.1%
This is a value bet. The bookmaker is offering 8.1% more than the sharp market price.
When to Bet
- Edge above 3%: Possible value, worth considering
- Edge above 5%: Strong value, bet with confidence
- Edge above 15%: Suspicious — check for stale odds or errors
Automating This
Athenea Apex does this calculation automatically across 47 leagues every 5 minutes. When edge exceeds 5%, you get an instant alert with the match, odds, edge percentage, and recommended Kelly stake.